Gun Statistics Are Not Simple

Gun control is one of the most hotly debated topics in American social policy. As such, research has established several key points of information regarding firearms deaths which are often brought up in discussion, particularly by those who advocate increased restriction on guns. These include: the U.S. has more annual gun deaths than other developed countries, firearms are the most common method of suicide, and guns kept in the home are more likely to kill a family member than an intruder. While these statements are not necessarily untrue, they are also not as simple as they seem, and neither is their application.

For instance, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports that while there were over 30,000 gun deaths in 2005, more than half of these were suicides. Only 40%—roughly 12,000—were were criminal homicides. Although that number is much higher than other developed countries, it is still a very small number of illegal misuses when compared to the number of legally owned guns. There are an estimated 215 million firearms in private ownership in the U.S., according to the FBI and the National Academy Science, which means the odds of a legal firearms being used to commit murder are nearly 1 in 18,000. And while it would seem that a higher number of guns would correlate with a higher number of gun deaths, recent trends seem to suggest otherwise. The number of annual gun sales has risen 30% in the past five years alone, murder has continued to decline to its lowest rate since 1963. All of this makes it difficult to establish that the U.S. has a serious problem with gun deaths, or that decreasing the number of guns would necessarily improve it, at least so far as homicides are concerned.

Suicides, on the other hand, are different. The New York Sun reported that according to public health research, a residence where a suicide occurs is three to five times more likely to have a gun present. In deciding the case that struck down a decades-old ban on handguns in the District of Columbia, Justice Stephen Breyer wrote, “If a resident has a handgun in the home that he can use for self-defense, then he has a handgun in the home he can use to commit suicide or engage in domestic violence.” There is no question that guns are the most common method of suicide, or that they are generally the most lethal. More than 90% of attempted suicides involving guns are successful. But is a stricter gun policy the key to curbing suicides? Not necessarily. While the U.S. may have the highest rate of suicide involving guns, the World Health Organization reports that France, Sweden, China, Japan, Russia and Canada have higher rates of suicide, despite the fact that these countries all have strict controls or even outright prohibitions on guns. Firearms may be the most popular method of suicide in the U.S. simply because they are available, but there is no indication that victims wouldn’t have chosen other methods if they weren’t.

Perhaps the most popular statement made in the case against guns, is that a gun kept in the home is more likely to kill a family member than an intruder. This stems from a 1986 article by Arthur L. Kellermann and Donald T. Reay which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Although several aspects of Kellermann’s work have drawn criticism from peers, it may indeed be true that a gun is more likely to kill a person in the home than an outside invader, especially considering that more than half of all lethal gunshots are self-inflicted. But that doesn’t mean guns are more likely to harm their owner than protect them. In fact, guns are used to defend their owners more than a million times each year, according to Criminologist Gary Kleck. Unlike Kellerman’s study, Kleck examined all reported incidents involving guns instead of just those resulting in fatalities. What he found was that when guns are used defensively, the overwhelming majority of the time they are never fired. Because no one is killed, these incidents generally were never considered by researchers such as Kellerman. If they were, he would have found that a gun kept in the home is twenty-seven times more likely to stop an attacker than it is to harm anyone—including the attacker.

Contrary to the claims of many who support gun ownerships, the statements made by those who oppose it are not all “bogus,” but neither are they undeniably true or universally applicable to all arguments. Guns are a complex issue. While we certainly have more of them, and more murders involving them than other countries, the number of privately owned guns continues to increase while the number of murders committed with them continues to drop. And while people use guns to kill themselves more often than they use anything else, there’s no guarantee that anyone who died from a self-inflicted gunshot wouldn’t have likely suffered a slower, more painful and equally lethal death in the absence of a firearm. And finally, the chances of a gun being used to harm a family are incredibly low, especially compared to the chances it will be used to protect one.

SOURCES:

1) "Protection or Peril? An Analysis of Firearm-Related Deaths in the Home," Arthur L. Kellermann and Donald T. Reay, The New England Journal of Medicine 314, no. 24 (1986)

2) “Armed resistance to crime: the prevalence and nature of self-defense with a gun,” Kleck, Gary and Gertz, M, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology. 86:143-186. (1995)

3) “Guns and Suicide in the United States,” Matthew Miller, M.D., Sc.D., and David Hemenway, Ph.D. N Engl J Med 2008; 359:989-991 (2008)

4) “FBI Releases Preliminary Annual Crime Statistics for 2009,” http://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-preliminary-annual-crime-statistics-for-2009/..

5) BATFE estimated 215 million guns in 1999 (Crime Gun Trace Reports, 1999, National Report, Nov. 2000, p. ix , www.atf.gov/firearms/ycgii/1999/index.htm).

6) National Research Council, Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review, National Academies Press, 2005. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports 72 million approved new and used firearm transactions by firearm dealers through the National Instant Check System between 1999-2007 (“Background Checks for Firearm Transfers, 2007,” www.ojp.usdoj.gov./bjs/pub/html/bcft/2007/table/bcft07st01.htm).